Chapter 1: Understanding Celi's Challenges

In Celi's presentation, there's a slide that provocatively states, "Reasons to Avoid Investing in Celi." This slide highlights critical risks such as defensibility, carrying capacity, and the cold start problem, while also detailing how we've proactively addressed each through peer-reviewed strategies and insights from those who have successfully navigated these challenges before. Including this slide, which is often omitted from reference decks, feels like a transparent and responsible choice.

It's worth noting that 90% of new startups fail, with tech startups facing the highest failure rates in the U.S. This slide, however, overlooks a significant risk: myself. Statistically, only 18% of first-time founders achieve success.

As I beta-test Celi, I have been conducting a self-assessment as part of a premortem analysis. The encouraging takeaway? I've identified just one surefire way to fail: quitting.

In the words of Seth Rogen, "If you don't quit, you might make it. If you quit, you definitely won't." As long as I persevere, Celi has a fighting chance.

This introspection led me to pinpoint three potential triggers for quitting: conviction, runway, and recruitment.

Celi's beta test currently boasts over 120 users across nine countries, with a week-over-week growth rate of 15.87%, a conversion rate of 77.57%, and a viral coefficient of 2.02, all while maintaining 0% churn. Celi's design inherently focuses on product-led acquisition, expansion, and retention. Among the five key business models that create billions in value, Celi already incorporates three.

Each day, Celi's simplicity, utility, and impact invigorate my enthusiasm. Yet, a comment from a 20-year-old recently shook my confidence when he asserted that Celi "won't work because it isn't fun."

He has a point: Celi isn't designed to be entertaining. However, it’s also not devoid of enjoyment. Celi functions as a social utility, and the fun derived from it is contingent upon how users engage with the connections it fosters. This young individual mistakenly compared Celi to social media platforms instead of viewing it as a tool akin to a contacts app or calendar.

As the founder, it's imperative that I don't allow external feedback to undermine my conviction. While I welcome feedback, it should be evaluated critically, as most opinions lack an in-depth understanding of Celi's roadmap and data.

Overcoming my own conviction risk is a new challenge for me. In past endeavors, I have always had someone to believe in me—a coach in hockey, a professor, or a manager. Now, at Celi, I am not just the founder; I am also the coach, mentor, and guide for myself, the Celi team, and our users.

I'm still learning how to balance these roles effectively. Writing, daily affirmations, and messages of support from Celi users bolster my resolve. I've even instituted a rule: whenever my confidence wavers, I must pitch Celi to a new person.

I genuinely believe in Celi. I view its existence as essential and inevitable—99% of the time. It’s that 1% of the time, where doubt creeps in, that I am learning to manage.

Many founders experience similar uncertainties during their product-market fit journey. This presents an opportunity to channel that concern into motivation—listening to feedback and using it to identify areas for improvement.

Ask: If you believe in Celi or in me, please share your thoughts. I plan to keep all words of encouragement in a dedicated folder for easy access.

Chapter 2: Assessing Runway and Recruitment Risks

Since launching Celi, I have spent $782.28 on essential subscriptions, messaging services, and tools. This leaves Celi with $4,217.72, which allows us to continue operating for a while before seeking additional capital.

The runway risk is not merely financial; it also pertains to the founder. I've been fortunate to keep both operating and living costs low and have learned to live frugally. By carefully managing my expenses, I’ve been able to survive on $2,686.24 monthly.

Every sacrifice extends Celi's potential for success, although the path is challenging. The lack of a dedicated workspace can be tough, and frequently relocating disrupts my routine. Working from public libraries or relying on friends for WeWork access feels uncomfortable, but these sacrifices provide Celi with a chance to thrive.

If I deplete my personal savings, the journey will become difficult but not insurmountable. I trust in my humility and resourcefulness to mitigate runway risk through part-time work or consulting, though these efforts would divert focus from Celi. The more cash I can keep within Celi, the better the chances of achieving success while simultaneously addressing the third risk: recruitment.

Celi's current setup is cumbersome for users. Account creation involves a Typeform, notifications are sent manually, and users require my assistance to connect. Despite these hurdles, each Celi user invites an average of 2.02 new users, and we have sustained a remarkable 15.87% weekly growth since beta testing began.

The next logical step is to develop a public version of Celi that allows users to create accounts, add their dates, and connect freely. However, I am not equipped to build this myself. To reach this milestone, Celi needs to recruit a founding full-stack developer, a product designer, and a generalist.

Complicating matters, Celi can only offer equity, the chance to make a significant impact, and a creative environment for experimentation.

Recruitment risk is a reality. I don’t expect many candidates to consider an equity-only position without guaranteed salary or success. Overcoming this obstacle requires immense trust, faith, and flexibility from potential candidates—qualities I believe Celi deserves.

Celi is being developed with a unique product DNA that positions it for explosive growth upon launch. It’s already enhancing the quality of friendships globally. Additionally, Celi can pave the way for future funding opportunities, salaries, and benefits. Out of 337 survey participants, 78 expressed interest in being considered for investment.

For candidates, the flexibility to maintain a stable 9-to-5 job while contributing to Celi during evenings and weekends presents an ideal opportunity to hone their skills and invest in the concept of friendship.

Ask: If you have any advice or know of opportunities for active or passive income streams, please reach out.

Aut viam inventam aut faciam

Celi addresses a genuine issue faced by 91.33% of individuals, providing solutions that were previously inadequate. The platform boasts natural network effects and fulfills three out of five strategies for generating a promising startup idea, alongside three of the five business models that support billions in value.

For users, Celi offers intrinsic rewards, eliminates the reliance on social media, and simplifies the process of being a better friend. I am grateful that Celi has entrusted me with its vision, and I am determined to overcome any risks related to conviction, runway, or recruitment to bring it to fruition.

I am an optimist, possess a healthy disregard for the impossible, and have the humility to seek assistance, all while maintaining the integrity needed to protect the Celi user experience.

Being frugal and capital-efficient, single, sober, and a consistent achiever, I am committed to this endeavor. I approach this challenge with a sense of urgency, aiming to address those who have withheld their support, misjudged my efforts, or confused incubation with inaction. Celi is deeply personal to me.

As Bruce Lee famously said, "Don't fear failure. Not failure, but low aim, is the crime. In great attempts, it is glorious even to fail."

And so, I proceed, asking only for a chance to succeed.

Ask: If you’re skeptical about Celi or my commitment to it, I invite you to engage with me. What am I missing about Celi? Let’s discuss and explore the months of research and results that have shaped my belief in this venture.

🎯 I am openly documenting the journey of building Celi, capturing each decision, setback, and triumph, along with personal reflections on the experience of creating a product solo. If you support founders, enjoy startups, or have ever regretted missing a birthday, you might find value in following my journey through "In Public."

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