Chapter 1: The Specter of Apocalypse

The concept of the apocalypse has predominantly been portrayed through religious texts and blockbuster movies. However, scientific research is increasingly recognizing the potential dangers—both natural and anthropogenic—that could jeopardize civilization as we know it. A recent study outlines twelve significant risks that could lead to a catastrophic end, echoing themes found in both sacred writings and cinematic narratives.

As Stuart Armstrong, a researcher from the Institute for the Future of Humanity at the University of Oxford, explains, “Hollywood often presents grand heroics to avert disaster while religious groups search for deeper meanings behind these calamities.” In contrast, science frames these risks as critical issues that can be simplified to less glamorous concepts like energy efficiency. Many of these threats lack a clear rationale or underlying purpose.

The Institute for the Future of Humanity, in collaboration with Sweden’s Global Challenges Foundation, has gathered extensive knowledge regarding these potential disasters. A diverse group of experts meticulously analyzed numerous scientific publications to compile a list of events that could threaten human existence. Their report assesses the probabilities of these calamities occurring within the next century.

Chapter 2: The Twelve Risks to Civilization

The twelve identified risks are not ranked by severity or likelihood. Climate change, specifically extreme climate change, tops the list. This form of risk is classified as anthropogenic, stemming from human advancement since the Industrial Revolution. While historical progress has led to improved living standards and health conditions, it has also resulted in these pressing dangers.

The report indicates that while the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth is uncertain, it is a genuine risk. Armstrong reminds us, “An asteroid impact is a certainty, but the odds of a disastrous one are significantly lower.” The last major impact that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs was a meteorite, which occurs approximately every 20 million years, give or take.

The aftermath of such an event would be catastrophic. Dust clouds could obscure sunlight for decades, leading to a prolonged winter affecting the biosphere. NASA estimated that in 2013, the probability of the 2013 TV135 Asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 was one in 63,000—a chance comparable to being struck by lightning.

The concept of a winter—whether nuclear or volcanic—is a common theme among many of these threats. For example, the Siberian Traps, vast basalt formations in northern Siberia, resulted from one of the largest volcanic eruptions in Earth's history, leading to a lengthy volcanic winter that caused mass extinction around 250 million years ago. Geological records suggest that catastrophic eruptions occur every 30,000 to 700,000 years.

The vast time scales involved contribute to what the report authors refer to as the “invisibility” of these problems. Humanity has never encountered an apocalypse, leading to a psychological tendency to overlook such threats. Armstrong notes, “As major disasters are rare, we lack experience with them, and our perceptions are often shaped by popular culture and cinematic portrayals.”