Chapter 1: The Argument Overview

What leads us to conclude that the absence of evidence for aliens suggests they may not exist? The reasoning can be distilled into a straightforward five-step statistical framework that doesn’t necessarily require advanced knowledge of extraterrestrial life forms.

CREDIT | 20th Century Fox / Disney

1. If intelligent extraterrestrial beings are out there, at least a few should persist long enough to either invade, colonize, visit, or communicate with humanity in a clear and traceable manner. Not every civilization would collapse or choose to remain hidden.
2. No such interactions have taken place in a manner that is observable or traceable.
3. Assuming these beings exist, they have had millions, if not billions, of years to make contact or establish a robotic probe in orbit around Earth or the solar system. Yet, there is no evidence of such actions.
4. Thus, it can be concluded that these non-reticent aliens do not exist.
5. Therefore, if we consider (a) the desire to engage and (b) the capability to do so as somewhat independent factors, we can conclude that no intelligent extraterrestrial life exists.

Chapter 2: The Quest for Water Worlds

The first video titled "Tyla - Water (Official Music Video)" explores themes of connection and longing, resonating with the quest for extraterrestrial life and our ongoing search for water.

We are on the brink of discovering planets that might harbor liquid water. For instance, GJ 486 b, a rocky super-Earth exoplanet, orbits a red dwarf star named Gliese 486, also known as Wolf 437, located 26 light-years away in the Virgo constellation. With three times Earth's mass and a radius that is 30% larger, it completes an orbit in under 1.5 Earth days and is likely tidally locked, keeping one side perpetually facing its star. Data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) supports the idea that any water present likely originates from the planet itself, rather than from its star.

The second video, "Tyla - Water (Official Audio)," echoes the themes of exploration and discovery, paralleling our efforts to understand the universe.

If intelligent life forms have the capability and desire to reach out, then, given the visibility of Earth's liquid water, they should have already made their presence known, especially since they would likely be millions of years more advanced than us.

Chapter 3: Addressing the Loopholes

The potential exceptions to this line of reasoning could include:

1. The idea that intelligent aliens are extremely rare, suggesting their existence is statistically unlikely.
2. The notion that the desire for interstellar travel is inversely correlated with the ability to do so, which seems implausible as a systematic pattern.
3. The theory that all intelligent extraterrestrials adhere to a non-interference policy similar to that depicted in Star Trek, which is highly doubtful.

Even today, numerous influential individuals on Earth are approaching the capability to initiate communications, robotic explorations, and potentially even generational missions to other stars. This leads me to believe that we are likely alone in the universe, aside from a few statistically improbable exceptions.

Chapter 4: Conclusion

Where are the aliens? The evidence tends to support the notion that, if extraterrestrial beings exist, they have not made their presence known to us. As a physicist with an interest in the Fermi paradox, I conclude that our loneliness in the cosmos may indeed be a reality.