# How Smartphones Postponed a Technological Revolution by Over Two Decades
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The Smartphone Disruption
Smartphones are widely recognized as a transformative technology, but they inadvertently obstructed another potential revolution in technology for at least two decades. This disruption originated from innovations developed at the Xerox PARC (Palo Alto Research Center). In the film “The Pirates of Silicon Valley,” viewers can witness how tech behemoths like Microsoft and Apple capitalized on breakthroughs such as:
- The computer mouse
- The graphical user interface
- The laptop (termed “Dynabook”)
- Object-oriented programming
These advancements are essential to contemporary computing, and the fact that Xerox failed to capitalize on them presents a fascinating case study for business education.
However, there was another groundbreaking innovation in the pipeline at Xerox, poised to become a significant advancement. Yet, with the introduction of the iPhone, this revolution was sidelined, at least for the time being.
Before the iPhone made its debut, other mobile phones, such as the Nokia 9500 “Communicator,” existed. This phone was a behemoth in its own right, featuring a laptop-style hinge and the ability to manage tasks and appointments alongside a compact document editor and physical keyboard. Nevertheless, it couldn't withstand the arrival of the iPhone.
The iPhone represented a shift; rather than functioning merely as a phone, it housed a genuine computer with a fully-fledged multitasking operating system. Apple intentionally limited these multitasking features to prevent performance issues.
Today, when we refer to "smartphones," we typically envision devices akin to the iPhone: touchscreen-centric, devoid of physical keys, equipped with a multitasking OS, edge-to-edge displays, and a multitude of sensors. This mobile-first trend has become predominant, especially among younger demographics, leading to a dramatic decline in Microsoft’s mobile dominance.
Currently, with over 6 billion mobile devices in circulation globally, we witness only marginal enhancements each year, compelling consumers to purchase the latest models (looking at you, iPhone 14) while the anticipation for the next groundbreaking innovation continues.
The Next Big Thing?
"Wait, you mentioned earlier that there was a revolution on the horizon," you might wonder...
The Ubicomp Revolution
The revolution that smartphones hindered is referred to as "ubiquitous computing" (Ubicomp). The visionary behind this movement was Mark Weiser, also affiliated with Xerox PARC. In his 1991 manifesto, “The Computer for the 21st Century,” he proclaimed (cue ominous music):
“The most profound technologies are those that disappear.”
Weiser drew parallels to electricity, which has become an invisible utility, with wires hidden within building structures. We only see light switches and outlets, which are ubiquitous in homes and offices. He imagined a future where computers, displays, and sensors are seamlessly integrated into our environments, eliminating the need to "sit at a computer."
In this envisioned world, user-computer interactions wouldn't necessitate attention to a screen, as everyday actions—like waking up—could trigger devices such as a coffee maker.
Weiser further argued that:
“The idea of a personal computer is misplaced, [as it’s] only a transitional step toward achieving the real potential of information technology.”
If this seems perplexing, that's understandable. Weiser cautioned that “Neither an explication of the principles of ubiquitous computing nor a list of the technologies involved really gives a sense of what it would be like to live in a world full of invisible widgets.”
Embodied Virtuality
Weiser coined the term “embodied virtuality” for the Ubicomp user interface, suggesting that interactions with computers would be tangible and physical—such as knobs and handles—rather than relying solely on screens and keyboard input. He foresaw the emergence of the Metaverse when he warned:
“Perhaps most diametrically opposed to our vision is the notion of virtual reality.”
It's worth noting that Zuckerberg was only 7 years old when these words were spoken.
“Virtual reality is merely a map, not the territory,” Weiser added.
Little Signals at Google
Recently, Google initiated the "Little Signals" project, aiming to recreate a Ubicomp-like environment but using the term “Ambient Computing” instead of “Ubiquitous Computing.” They refer to “unassuming and charming objects” rather than “embodied virtuality,” all set against a calming soundtrack. The term “calm” appears frequently, reminiscent of Weiser’s concept of “Calm Technology,” which he described as technology that “informs but doesn’t demand our focus or attention.”
However, Google's "Little Signals" appears to be a small-scale initiative (no pun intended) that has received minimal promotion. It's a tentative exploration to gauge whether society is ready for ubiquitous computing—or calm computing—more than two decades after Ubicomp was first proposed and following the smartphone boom.
Final Thoughts
Regardless of its name, Ubicomp has the potential to profoundly impact daily life. According to Weiser, Ubicomp could mitigate some negative social effects of smartphones:
“By pushing computers into the background, embodied virtuality will make individuals more aware of the people [...]”
Instead of glancing down at our phones for the latest notifications, we would engage more with the individuals around us.
The first video discusses why smartphones may become obsolete and explores what could replace them.
The second video examines the imminent end of the smartphone era and its implications for the future of technology.