Exploring Social Bubbles: A New Approach to COVID-19 Control
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Chapter 1: Understanding Social Bubbles
A recent investigation by researchers from Oxford has identified social bubbles as a potential “effective strategy” for the UK in combating the pandemic. But how applicable is this concept for individuals?
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As nations begin to ease lockdown restrictions, a pressing question lingers for both policymakers and the public: Are we truly safe now that these measures are being lifted? The recent study from Oxford provides some insights into this dilemma.
On June 4th, researchers shared their findings regarding the effectiveness of social bubbles in controlling the spread of the coronavirus, contrasting it with traditional social distancing methods. The aim of this study was clear: to mitigate transmission rates and the growth of infections, thereby preventing healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed—essentially flattening the curve.
The study posits that “strategically reducing contacts is preferable to complete isolation,” especially since most aspects of economic and social life necessitate person-to-person interaction. While social distancing has significantly contributed to flattening the curve, the relaxation of these measures poses challenges in maintaining adherence to isolation protocols. Historically, quarantines were often based on expert opinions rather than empirical data, which this study seeks to rectify by establishing a data-driven approach to managing quarantine.
Section 1.1: Insights from Public Health Experts
Linda Bauld, a public health professor at the University of Edinburgh and a co-researcher in this study, noted that social distancing can feel inequitable for separated couples and single individuals, particularly the younger demographic. She indicated that the concept of social bubbles and micro-communities could alleviate the tendency to disregard these rules over time.
The study ultimately aims to create effective community measures that protect individuals from the virus. To account for variations in human behavior, the researchers modeled three types of social behaviors: Similarity, Social Contacts, and Social Bubbles.
Subsection 1.1.1: Defining a Social Bubble
A social bubble is defined as a strategy to “limit interaction to a few repeated contacts.” This study highlights the negative social, psychological, and economic impacts of prolonged social distancing. By focusing on “the familiarity and repetition of contacts,” this model aims to strengthen communities while effectively managing virus transmission.
Dr. Per Block, the study’s lead author, explained that all three strategies treated individuals within a bubble as if they were members of the same household, thereby negating the need for physical distancing. While social bubbles emerged as the most effective strategy, all three approaches presented valuable insights.
Section 1.2: Evaluating the Strategies
The first strategy, Similarity, examines interactions based on shared traits like geographic proximity or common interests. The findings suggested that if individuals interacted with others within a three-block radius, the virus would require over 30 transmission events to spread across a wider area.
The second strategy, Social Contacts, emphasizes maintaining regular interactions with close friends and family. The analysis indicated that while infections could spread within these groups, the approach would effectively prevent transmission to outside communities.
The third strategy, Social Bubbles, involves a more selective interaction framework where individuals choose a limited number of essential contacts, fostering a micro-community that prioritizes both psychological and physical well-being. As Dr. Bauld highlighted, this method could be particularly beneficial for couples living apart or caregivers looking after vulnerable individuals.
Chapter 2: Practical Implementation of Social Bubbles
Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, has indicated a move towards implementing social bubbles, allowing groups of six to gather privately. While the idea of creating micro-communities is appealing, actual implementation presents challenges, both at a national level and within individual households.
New Zealand has successfully reduced COVID-19 cases and adopted a social bubble system, permitting citizens to expand their social circles to include up to ten people, with plans for larger gatherings soon. According to their government, a social bubble consists of one's household, which can then extend to close relatives and friends as lockdown restrictions ease. They stress the importance of keeping these bubbles exclusive to ensure mutual safety.
Dr. Nicola Brink, Guernsey’s Director of Public Health, emphasized the need for reciprocal arrangements when forming bubbles, ensuring that one household does not interact with multiple others indiscriminately.
In a recent video, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) endorsed many benefits of social bubbles but warned of the risks associated with non-compliance with established regulations. They noted that the dynamics of bubbles are complex and could lead to excessive contact networks when combined with other easing measures.
Policymakers are encouraging individuals to reconnect with their closest social contacts while taking precautions to limit these interactions. If people can diligently adhere to social bubble protocols while practicing social distancing in public, Dr. Block expressed optimism that these various strategies could indeed be effective.
Tuesday Media Briefing on COVID-19 - This briefing discusses the latest findings and updates on COVID-19 measures and social bubbles.
Friday Media Briefing on COVID-19 - This session provides insights into the ongoing management and strategies for COVID-19, including the role of social bubbles.